Perhaps I never should have agreed to take part in this blog roundup on the reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA). The reason is simple: I don’t believe ESEA will be reauthorized this year.

I have been the Odd One Out in a host of optimistic conversations all year. Most of my colleagues believe that this time, for sure, the 50-year-old ESEA (last updated in 2001) will actually be reauthorized.

I remain unconvinced. Remember Lucy and the football? I ask them. Every year, Charlie Brown convinced himself that this time Lucy would hold that football and let him kick it. And every year he was disappointed. Those who believe the federal government will give them legislative relief from onerous aspects of No Child Left Behind (NCLB) this year are, I fear, setting themselves up for the same letdown.

Yes, the Senate bill passed with an overwhelming bipartisan majority (translation: both sides compromised). But as a former legislator, I know that the real two parties in any legislature are the House and the Senate. And the House in particular has no real incentive to move a compromise bill during 2015.

A story in Politico lays out the challenges facing the House this fall: “a potential government shutdown, a deadline to raise the federal debt ceiling or risk default, and a contentious showdown over highway spending.” Add to that the fight over funding Planned Parenthood and the Iran deal and I have trouble seeing where the House will have the time—much less the bandwidth or the comity—to deal with anything else.

I think Speaker Boehner, who chaired the House Education and Workforce Committee when the last reauthorization was adopted, would like this year’s version of ESEA to become law. But I also think he’d have to count on Democratic votes to make it happen, and given the polarization within his own caucus, it might cost him the speakership.

That said, I think we are moving into a post-NCLB period, whether or not the bill is reauthorized this year. We’ve seen a greater devolution of power and authority to the states through the waiver process. And we’ve seen the huge influx of federal spending that drove many state policy changes essentially dry up. So states, and state boards of education, are going to be increasingly important in setting education policy.

What does this mean for arts education advocates?

First, don’t give up entirely on efforts to keep Congress doing what we elect our representatives to do: pass bills. Reauthorization could happen, and even if it doesn’t, this year’s final language will likely be the starting point for future negotiations. Reauthorization is the only way to guarantee that progress made during this Administration will carry over to the next.

Second, get to know your state board of education members. Over the next few years, they will be making a host of decisions that will directly affect how (and in some cases whether) arts education is taught. Look at your state standards and make sure the arts are included. Play an active role in conversations about new ways to assess student learning in your state (arts teachers are experts on what “competency-based evaluation” should look like). Ensure that board members understand the higher-order thinking skills that are developed through participation in the arts.

If I’m wrong and ESEA is reauthorized this year, a great deal more authority will move to the states. But if I’m right and the existing law remains in force, more authority will still be moving to the states.

That’s not as certain as Charlie Brown and the football. But preparing for a move toward greater state responsibility, by one method or another, seems like a pretty sure play.